According to the latest report on the future of electricity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity consumption in the MENA region will continue to grow rapidly in the next decade, driven by population growth, economic expansion, and surging demand for cooling and seawater desalination caused by extreme climate.

Under the current policy scenario, it is expected that by 2035, the total power generation in the MENA region will increase by about 50% compared to 2023, reaching nearly 2,700 terawatt-hours (TWh).

Although fossil fuels will still dominate the power generation structure, their proportion is expected to decline from about 90% in 2023 to 75% in 2035. Among them, natural gas remains the largest source of electricity, with power generation increasing by about 40% by 2035, but its proportion in the overall structure slightly decreases.

Fuel oil generation is expected to decline by 60% to 5%, while coal-fired generation remains below 2%.

Low-emission electricity will meet most of the new electricity demand by 2035. Among them, solar photovoltaic growth is the fastest, and its power generation is expected to increase 15 times by 2035 compared to 2023, contributing half of the total power generation increase in the region.

Wind power and other renewable energy sources (including hydropower, concentrated solar power (CSP), bioenergy, and geothermal) will collectively contribute more than 10% of the new electricity generation.

Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), pointed out that the region will see an addition of over 300 gigawatts (GW) of electricity capacity in the next decade, equivalent to three times the current total installed capacity of Saudi Arabia.

In terms of investment, the MENA region's power sector investment reached $44 billion in 2024, and is expected to grow by another 50% by 2035, with about 40% of this going towards expanding and modernizing the power grid.

The IEA also highlighted that improving the efficiency of air conditioning will be key to curbing the growth of peak electricity demand. The reduction in peak electricity demand through improved air conditioning efficiency alone is equivalent to the current total electricity capacity of Iraq.

Previously, Eurovent Middle East, the air conditioning industry association in the Middle East, had launched the "Desert Certification Program", which is also the first testing program designed for high-temperature environments in the Middle East. This program will provide localized support for air conditioning manufacturers and assist them in obtaining corresponding government compliance certifications.Editor/Huang li Jun