[Oman's $1.6 billion silicon material plant has questionable production prospects] On December 10, 2025, the joint solar polycrystalline silicon project with a total investment of up to 1.6 billion US dollars is being pushed forward with controversy and anticipation in the Suhar Port Free Trade Zone in Oman. The project has once again received a $200 million term loan from Oman Arab Bank, which is the fourth key financing obtained by the project since 2025. Although the cumulative financing amount has exceeded 630 million US dollars, the funding gap is still huge, making it uncertain whether it can be put into operation as scheduled by the end of 2026. This project is led by Zhang Longgen, a senior figure in the Chinese photovoltaic industry, and is regarded as a typical example of China's photovoltaic capacity "curve going global". Faced with the challenges of severe overcapacity in the global polycrystalline silicon market (expected to reach 70% by 2025), sustained price decline, and uncertainty in obtaining market access in Europe and America for the project, its prospects have attracted industry attention. However, the project carries Oman's national strategy of developing green manufacturing and enjoys multiple local preferential policies, with significant advantages in electricity costs. If low-cost production can be achieved by 2026, it is not only expected to survive in the industry reshuffle, but also may drive billions of dollars in downstream photovoltaic industry investment in the Middle East region. The ultimate outcome of this gamble involving massive capital, industrial transfer, and national strategy may be revealed by the end of 2026. Editor/Yang Beihua

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