In January 2026, hundreds of workers were working intensively in the Deyang Aba Ecological Economic Industrial Park in Sichuan, with tower cranes towering and welding sparks flying everywhere. This is the construction site of Sichuan Guocheng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd.'s annual production of 200000 tons of lithium salt project. The main structure of the first phase of the project has been completed by 90%, the installation progress of process equipment is over half, and the core equipment has been fully mobilized. It is planned to be completed in February this year and put into trial production in April.

The first phase investment is 2.038 billion yuan to build a battery grade lithium carbonate production line with an annual output of 60000 tons; The second phase plan aims to produce 60000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate and 30000 tons of battery grade lithium hydroxide annually, with plans to commence construction in early 2027; The third phase aims to produce 50000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate, lithium oxide, and metallic lithium annually, and is expected to start construction in early 2029. After completion, it will become the largest lithium salt production base in China, capable of producing 800000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and 320 gigawatt hours of lithium iron phosphate batteries annually, meeting the battery needs of over 5.5 million new energy vehicles.

The project was signed and implemented as early as December 2022, but it was not until November 2024 that the first phase of the project officially started construction in the Mianzhu New Materials Chemical Industrial Park. In March 2025, the environmental impact assessment report and public participation explanation for the first phase of the project will be publicly announced before approval; In August, the lifting task of the first section of the rotary kiln cylinder was successfully completed. From signing the contract to starting construction, there were almost two years of silence, but now there is a noticeable acceleration.

Behind it is the dual driving force of Guocheng Mining's own strategic upgrading and the lithium salt market situation. Guocheng Mining focuses on non-ferrous metal mining and resource recycling, with core products including zinc concentrate, lead concentrate, copper concentrate, titanium dioxide, etc. With the decline in the prosperity of the non-ferrous metal industry, the company's performance is significantly under pressure. From 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 185 million yuan, 62.714 million yuan, and -113 million yuan, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10.68%, 66.17%, and 279.51%, from profit to loss. Improving profitability quality and accelerating strategic transformation are urgently needed.

After a two-year downward cycle, lithium salt demand is expected to rebound in 2025. The price of lithium carbonate has doubled from 59000 yuan/ton in June of that year to 120000 yuan/ton. The industry expects that with the support of cost and demand, the price center of lithium carbonate will fall within the range of 120000 to 130000 yuan/ton in 2026, and the profit margin of lithium salt will be further released.

The current increase in lithium salt prices, although influenced by market sentiment, is mainly the result of marginal improvement in demand. Some people believe that this may be the beginning of a new round of larger industrial cycle reversals than before. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, years of continuous losses forced high cost production capacity to reduce production and shut down, and supply side clearance became a key variable supporting price expectations. At the same time, terminal demand represented by the energy storage market has exploded, and the industry's destocking effect is significant, with a noticeable improvement in demand margins.

On the other hand, there is a possibility of a slowdown in the growth rate on the demand side. New energy vehicles and energy storage are the core consumer areas of lithium salts, and Morgan Stanley predicts that the annual sales of passenger cars in China will decline by 5% in 2026, while S&P Global predicts a 2.2% decline in the new car market next year. Energy storage is greatly affected by subsidy policies, the progress of electricity market reform, and project economics. The long-term trend is positive, but the growth rate may not be as expected. Keywords: New Energy News, Lithium Salt, Power Battery

Overall, the industry is generally optimistic about the future trend of lithium prices, but while companies need to grasp the long-term trend, they still need to be vigilant about the risks brought by short-term supply and demand fluctuations. Guocheng Lithium Industry initiated a coordinated layout of the industrial chain in the early stages of construction, and has established deep cooperation with 35 downstream manufacturers of positive electrode materials, power batteries, and complete vehicles. The cooperation scope covers more than 80% of the industry's core customers, and has signed long-term strategic agreements with multiple leading enterprises, laying a solid market foundation for smooth product production and sales in the future.Editor/Yang Meiling