Kyrgyz President Zaparov will pay a state visit to China from 4 to 7 February. The focus of this visit will undoubtedly fall on the project of the Sino-Kyrgyz-Uzbek railway. Once completed, the railway will open up one of the most convenient land routes from China to Europe and the Middle East. Compared to the traditional Siberian railway line or sea transport around the Strait of Malacca, this new corridor will shorten transport time by 7 to 10 days and reduce transport costs by about 30 per cent.

The planned railway is about 523 kilometres long, starting from Kashgar in Xinjiang, crossing the Turgat Pass into Kyrgyzstan, then extending west to the Kyrgyz border town of Karasu, and finally arriving in Andijan in eastern Uzbekistan. The length of the section is 213 kilometres in China, 260 kilometres in Kyrgyzstan and about 50 kilometres in Uzbekistan.

The idea of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway dates back as far as 1997, when the three countries signed a memorandum of understanding to that effect. However, due to a number of complications, the project has remained in the preparatory stage and progress has been slow. Fortunately, in 2022, through the joint efforts of all parties, the project took a major turn for the better. In September that year, the three countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation on the Sino-Japanese-Ukrainian Railway (section in Kyrgyzstan), putting the project back on track. And on 6 June 2024, the signing ceremony of the Agreement between the three governments on the Sino-Kyrgyz-Uzbek Railway project was held in Beijing, marking the official transition from the conceptual stage to the implementation stage of the project.

For Kyrgyzstan, the economic pull of the Sino-Japanese-Ukrainian railway will be enormous. According to the World Bank's forecast, Kyrgyzstan's annual GDP growth rate is expected to increase by 1.5 to 2 per cent after the completion of the railway. From the railway transit freight alone, Kyrgyzstan is likely to gain $200 million a year, which is a considerable increase in its fiscal revenue.

For China, the completion of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will further strengthen trade ties with countries along the route. In recent years, the scale of China's trade with Central Asia and Europe has continued to grow. in 2023, China's trade with the five Central Asian countries was close to $90bn, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%. The opening of the China-Japan-Ukraine railway will further reduce trade costs, improve transport efficiency, and open up a broader international market for Chinese commodities, thus promoting the continued growth of trade volume.

In addition, the Sino-Japanese-Ukrainian railway also has important strategic significance. It will constitute a strong impact on the U.S. ‘New Silk Road programme’. Since launching the plan in 2011, the US has been trying to build an international economic and transport network connecting Central and South Asia, with Afghanistan at the centre, to realise its strategic interests in the region and strengthen its control over Eurasia. However, the construction of the Sino-Japanese-Ukrainian railway will gradually frustrate this US plan. Once the railway is completed and connected to the railway networks of Iran and Turkey, the entire ‘Eurasian integrated railway network’ will take shape. This will enable the Central Asian countries in economic cooperation with more choices, and strengthen the link between Central Asia and China, Europe, thus seriously weakening the United States in Central Asia's penetration capacity.

As a typical island-type country, the United States has long pursued the strategy of ‘offshore balance’, trying to maintain its position by manipulating conflicts between continental countries. Under this strategic thinking, the United States is deeply concerned about the group cooperation of continental countries, as it may weaken its control over global affairs. The advancement of the Sino-Georgian-Ukrainian railway project has shown the United States a strong tendency for continental countries to strengthen cooperation and achieve connectivity. Once completed, this railway will promote economic integration and convergence in Eurasia, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the United States. Because it means that the United States in the Eurasian continent in the abdominal region of the influence will be further weakened, its ‘New Silk Road plan’ will also be completely bankrupt. Therefore, the White House is highly concerned about the content of the talks between China and Kyrgyzstan, and can be said to be a heart hanging in the throat. Editor/Xu Shengpeng