The Republic of Tuva in Russia has recently conducted a feasibility study on the Kuragino Kizil railway project, with a core assessment of the total cross-border freight volume that the line can absorb after connecting with China and Mongolia, as well as the diversion and load reduction effect on the eastern railway network in Russia. This planned railway, with a total length of approximately 412 kilometers, aims to integrate the Tuva capital city of Kizil into the Krasnoyarsk Krai and the national railway network of Russia, creating a convenient channel for the transportation of local coal and other resources. Tuva's coal production accounts for about 10% of Russia's total, but the project investment is huge, exceeding 1 trillion rubles. Whether it can achieve profitability largely depends on whether the transit source of goods between China and Mongolia is stable.

The Tuva government stated that by 2050, the annual freight volume of this railway is expected to reach 75 million tons, which can not only drive local resource exports, but also share the pressure on the long-term near full capacity operation of the Siberian Railway and the Beia Railway. The project was initially positioned as a coal dedicated line and has now been incorporated into the Central Eurasian Transport Corridor, with relevant memorandums signed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2025. According to the plan, this channel can be connected to the northern channel via Yenisei River, and is regarded as the northern branch of the the Belt and Road. This line has been launched and put on hold multiple times since its proposal in 2009. Experts have hailed it as a potential "Siberian Suez Canal", which can save about 5 days of transportation time from Mongolia to China. It has outstanding competitiveness in container transportation between China, Russia, and Central Asia, and is expected to handle a transit container volume of about 4.4 million tons.

Construction and financing difficulties are highlighted

The benefits and risks of the project have made Russian private capital cautious. The railway is expected to be built for 10 years, with high financing costs and local interest rates of 16%. Private capital needs to be guaranteed by the state, so the project plans to attract foreign enterprises such as China and Mongolia to participate in investment. The project of this line is not easy, as it is a single track non electrified railway that requires the construction of 7 stations, 180 bridges, 7 tunnels, and some sections of the road need to be constructed through mountains. Meanwhile, the goods still need to be connected to the nearly saturated eastern section of the Siberian Railway, which poses a risk of congestion upon opening. In addition, with the decreasing global demand for coal, projects must shift from coal to a diversified source structure of rare earths, metals, industrial products, agricultural products, and transit transportation. Keywords: Tuva Railway, cross-border transportation, the Belt and Road

Diversified sources of goods support the prominent economic value of railways

From the perspective of source composition, even though the Eregerst coal mine plays an important role in long-term planning, the actual proportion of Tuva coal exports to China is relatively low. In 2024, Russia will export about 95 million tons of coal to China, while Tuva will only export about 650000 tons, and its growth potential is limited due to quota control. The industry believes that the real growth point of the project lies in non bulk resource goods, such as iron ore, non-ferrous metals and rare earths, high value-added metal products, as well as diversifiable sources of wood, grain, petroleum products, and industrial products. At the same time, the railway can also accommodate potential cargo flows such as peat and wood pellets that are difficult to transport due to insufficient capacity of the existing railway. According to calculations, by 2050, the route can achieve an additional and diverted freight volume of approximately 45.7 million tons. The evaluation shows that after the completion of the railway, the local socio-economic level in Tuva can be improved by more than 30% in the first year. To promote the implementation of the project, the Russian Federation needs to adopt the PPP model or a minimum transportation policy to stabilize the source of goods, actively introduce investment from China and Mongolia, and focus on developing diversified freight such as rare earths, metals, and containers to reduce dependence on coal.Editor/Gong Ziwei