The "2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" will be released in Beijing on February 3, 2026. The report shows that the pace of high-end transformation in China's refining industry is accelerating, and the development of new chemical materials is rapid. The self-sufficiency rate of high-end chemical materials has increased to over 80%.

The self-sufficiency rate of high-end chemical materials in China has increased to over 80%

In 2025, investment in oil and gas exploration and development will remain at a high level, and oil and gas storage and production will reach historic highs. Crude oil production reaches a historic high of 216 million tons; The natural gas production (including coal to gas) is 263.8 billion cubic meters, with a continuous increase of over 10 billion cubic meters for 9 years. China's refining capacity has reached 939 million tons per year, and its ethylene production capacity has reached 62.7 million tons per year, both ranking first in the world. With the accelerated transformation of China's automotive energy structure and the continuous upgrading of integrated refining and chemical production capacity, the petroleum consumption structure is further adjusted, the development of new chemical materials is rapid, and the self-sufficiency rate of high-end chemical materials has increased to over 80%.

The report predicts that in 2026, China's oil consumption will increase slightly, the growth rate of natural gas consumption will rebound, and the refining capacity will continue to grow. It is expected to increase the primary processing capacity of crude oil by 15 million tons per year, with a total capacity of over 950 million tons per year. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, the three major engines of import substitution, supporting emerging industries, and green and recyclable development will drive the continuous increase in demand for new materials. It is expected that the demand for chemical new materials will exceed 65 million tons by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of up to 10%.

Loose supply and demand in the global oil and gas market, with Asia becoming the core growth pole

The 2025 Report on the Development of the Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry points out that in 2025, the global oil and gas market will have loose supply and demand, international oil price fluctuations will decline, the natural gas market will shift from tight to loose, regional energy consumption differentiation will be significant, and Asia will continue to be the core growth pole of global energy consumption.

In 2025, the supply and demand relationship in the global oil and gas market will become more relaxed. The annual average price of Brent crude oil is $68.19 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 14.62%. The production of crude oil and natural gas will increase by 2.4% and 3.1% respectively. The regional consumption pattern is significantly differentiated, with the energy consumption growth rate in the Asia Pacific region reaching 2.7%, contributing nearly 80% of the global consumption increment, while Europe and Eurasia have decreased by 2.0%. The global ethylene production capacity is concentrated in Asia, and China's ethylene production capacity ranks first in the world, further highlighting the regional industrial competitiveness.

Lu Ruquan, President of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group: According to predictions, there will be a continued easing trend in 2026. In response to global relative uncertainty, China will drive itself to become the ballast and stabilizer of the global oil and gas market with stable economic development.

The report predicts that the loose pattern of the global oil and gas market will continue in 2026. Under the benchmark scenario, the average annual price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of 60-65 US dollars per barrel, and the demand for natural gas market will maintain a medium to low growth rate. The global ethylene production capacity is expected to increase by 9.3 million tons per year, with China accounting for 8.05 million tons per year, further strengthening the supporting position of China's petrochemical industry.Editor/Yang Meiling