The latest data shows that the bilateral trade volume between Kazakhstan and China will reach a new historical high in 2025, but the issue of trade imbalance is becoming increasingly prominent, becoming a core challenge in bilateral economic and trade relations.

By 2025, the trade volume between Kazakhstan and China will reach 34.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and China's share in Kazakhstan's total foreign trade will rise to 23.7%. However, this growth is mainly driven by imports from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's imports from China reached 18.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%; However, exports to China only slightly increased by 2.1% to 15.2 billion US dollars. This led to a sharp expansion of the trade deficit from 370 million US dollars to 3.7 billion US dollars, a tenfold increase.

This pattern of "fast entry and slow exit" reflects the complementarity of the economies of the two countries. The consumer goods, industrial products, and machinery and equipment produced in China effectively meet the demand for investment, infrastructure, and consumption growth in Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan's export structure to China is single and heavily dependent on raw materials. Affected by factors such as fluctuations in commodity prices, changes in Chinese demand, and the increase in its own production capacity, the export growth of traditional resource goods is weak. Although the export of non resource products has increased, the scale is limited and it is difficult to reverse the overall fatigue. Keywords: interconnectivity, trade growth, structural optimization

Analysis suggests that the trade pattern is difficult to change in the short term. Kazakhstan's export performance will still be constrained by fluctuations in commodity prices and demand in the Chinese market. Even if high oil prices can temporarily improve data, they cannot solve structural problems. In the long run, the key to promoting trade balance lies in Kazakhstan optimizing its export structure, reducing its dependence on raw materials, and leveraging China Kazakhstan cooperation to enhance the production and export capacity of high value-added products, thereby achieving balanced and sustainable development of bilateral trade. (This article is from the official website of Jian Dao www.seetao.com. Reproduction without permission is prohibited, otherwise it will be prosecuted. Please indicate Jian Dao website+original link when reprinting.) Jian Dao website interconnection column Editor/Sunyaxin