In 2026, the total installed capacity of renewable energy in the five Central Asian countries will exceed 28GW, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan contributing over 70% of the new capacity. The framework for collaborative development of clean energy established at the Second China Asia Summit continues to be implemented, and Chinese enterprises are accelerating their entry into the three major tracks of hydropower, photovoltaics, and wind power. Central Asia is becoming the second growth pole for China's new energy industry to go global.

Tajikistan monopolizes 60% of hydropower

The total exploitable capacity of hydropower technology in Central Asia is about 387 TWh, with Tajikistan accounting for about 60%. Its exploitable capacity is 221 TWh, ranking first in the world in terms of per capita ownership. Kyrgyzstan ranks second with 72 TWh, while Kazakhstan ranks third with 62 TWh. Uzbekistan has 27 TWh and Turkmenistan only has 5 TWh, with development potential concentrated in the upstream two countries. The second phase of the Rogun hydropower station in Tajikistan is progressing smoothly in 2026, with an additional installed capacity of approximately 600MW within the year.

The solar energy in Uzbekistan has the best conditions

Uzbekistan has 2410-3090 hours of sunshine throughout the year, with an annual radiation of over 6000MJ/m ² in the central and western regions. The technically exploitable capacity is about 11TW, and the desert terrain is suitable for large-scale photovoltaic deployment. Turkmenistan has about 300 sunny days per year, with a power generation potential of 2000kWh/m ² and a technically exploitable capacity of approximately 665GW, but the current utilization rate is extremely low. The average annual radiation in southern Kazakhstan is about 5700MJ/m ², while the northern region has insufficient winter sunshine. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are constrained by mountainous terrain, which limits large-scale photovoltaic construction.

Kazakhstan leads in wind energy reserves

Kazakhstan's wind energy technology has a potential development capacity of approximately 8.1TW, with an average wind speed of 7-9m/s in the southern, western, and northern regions, making it a core market for wind power in Central Asia. The technically exploitable capacity of Uzbekistan is about 130 TWh, and the economically exploitable capacity is about 2000 GWh, with the northwest and central regions being the main development areas. The wind speed in the northern desert area of Turkmenistan is 7.0-9.5m/s, with excellent conditions. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are limited by high-altitude mountainous terrain and are only suitable for the development of mountain wind farms, with limited scale.

The total investment in renewable energy in Central Asia is expected to exceed 12 billion US dollars by 2026, with Chinese companies participating in 35% of the projects. From hydropower to photovoltaics and then to wind power, the five Central Asian countries have significant differences in resource endowments and development rhythms. However, under the framework of the China Central Asia Energy Partnership, this Eurasian hinterland is accelerating the release of green energy potential and becoming an indispensable incremental market in the global clean energy landscape.Editor/Cheng Liting