Kazakhstan is becoming a key hub for Chinese goods to access broader markets. According to DataHub citing data from the National Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, the total amount of Chinese goods transported through Kazakhstan in transit reached 20.2 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32%, setting a record high since at least 2013. Over the past 13 years, this logistics corridor has maintained a growth trend, especially in the past four years where the growth rate has significantly accelerated. The average annual increase in freight volume from 2022 to 2025 is about 31%.

The deep reshaping of the geopolitical landscape is the core driving force behind this growth. In the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the traditional northern route through Russia is faced with sanctions and uncertainty, and a large number of cargo flows are forced to shift southward, thus Kazakhstan's status as an intermediate corridor has been greatly improved. At the same time, the coordinated investment of China and Kazakhstan in transportation infrastructure is also accelerating the release of dividends. The second line of the Dostyk to Monet railway, which will be completed and put into operation in 2025, has become a landmark project. The capacity of this section has increased from 12 pairs of trains per day to 60 pairs, a fivefold increase, greatly alleviating the long-standing bottleneck of transportation capacity.

Multi line parallel new direction suddenly emerges

Uzbekistan remains the largest destination for China's transit goods through Kazakhstan, with a transportation volume of 6.5 million tons by 2025, accounting for approximately one-third of the total. The consolidated cargo transported to Kazakhstan and other countries is about 4 million tons, accounting for one-fifth. But the most notable change comes from the direction of Iran, which contributes up to 44% to overall growth, with the most significant increase.

However, it should be noted that the freight volume in this direction in 2024 is only 5200 tons, which makes its year-on-year data very impressive due to its extremely low base. In addition, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan contributed 30% and 25% of the total increase, respectively. It is worth noting that the Russian direction has a negative contribution rate of 11% due to the transfer of some cargo flows, while the Polish direction has also experienced a decline with a negative contribution rate of 2%, which has a certain drag on overall growth.

Corridor upgrade unleashes long-term potential

The strategic value of the middle corridor is shifting from phased substitution to normalized layout. In 2024, the EU has incorporated the intermediate corridor into the global portal investment plan, echoing China's joint construction of the the Belt and Road. By 2025, the bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan will exceed 41 billion US dollars, and the demand for freight transportation will continue to strengthen. Keywords: the Belt and Road, cross-border logistics

Kazakhstan is also actively promoting the capacity expansion and digital customs clearance reform of Aktau Port, with the goal of increasing the annual transit transportation processing capacity to over 30 million tons. With the gradual elimination of infrastructure bottlenecks and the improvement of multilateral cooperation mechanisms, this southbound channel is expected to maintain a high growth trend in the coming years and become a lasting artery connecting the Eurasian continent.Editor/Cheng Liting