Against the backdrop of accelerating global transition to new energy, lithium carbonate, as the core raw material for power batteries and energy storage industries, has attracted much attention for its supply chain stability.

The resumption of production in mainstream production areas is hindered, and the pace of capacity release is slowing down

As a core supplier of global lithium resources, Australia's mining production exhibits a "structural differentiation" characteristic. Mainstream mines such as Pilgangoora and MtMarion have maintained stable production during the 2025 mining price downturn cycle through cost reduction. However, some small and medium-sized mines are indeed facing operational pressure, and MtCattlin mine has ceased production due to profitability issues, becoming the main source of short-term supply reduction. From the perspective of industry trends, the pressure to reduce production in Australian mines is mainly concentrated on high cost production capacity. Currently, ore prices have not yet reached the mainstream mining cost line, and the possibility of large-scale resumption or reduction of production in the short term is low. Capacity release is mainly stable.  

Argentina, known as the "Lithium Triangle" in South America, is becoming the core engine of global lithium supply growth, but its expansion pace is limited by infrastructure and environmental requirements. As a regional leading enterprise, SQM in Chile is expected to increase its annual sales of lithium salts by 10% in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 10000 tons in shipments in the second half of the year.

African resource rich countries face concentrated risks, making it difficult to realize their supply potential

Africa, as an emerging lithium resource supply region, is transitioning from exploration to large-scale development, but geopolitical and operational risks cannot be ignored. According to data from Benchmark Mining Intelligence Company, the lithium ore production in Africa has reached 111000 tons in 2024, a significant increase of 201% compared to 2023, mainly due to new construction projects in Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The first phase of Goulamana project in Mali, under Ganfeng Lithium Industry, will be put into operation in December 2024, with a planned annual production capacity of 506000 tons of lithium concentrate. It is expected to enter the capacity ramp up stage in October 2025 and further release production in November and December; The Bougouni project in Mali, a subsidiary of Hainan Mining, will be put into operation in early 2025. The first batch of ore was sent to China in October, and it is expected to contribute approximately 120000 tons of lithium concentrate annually.

However, regional risks still exist, with some mining areas in Mali facing transportation security challenges due to political instability, while the Democratic Republic of Congo is limited by insufficient supporting facilities, and the actual production of some projects may be lower than planned. The development of lithium resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe is becoming the other pole of supply growth in Africa, but policy and industrial chain matching issues pose major constraints. Congo (Kinshasa) has world-class lithium projects such as MtManono, which have attracted a large amount of international capital investment. However, the local mining permit approval process is complex, and some projects have been delayed due to environmental disputes. It is worth noting that Chinese companies play a key role in the development of lithium mines in Africa, with projects from companies such as Ganfeng, Huayou, and Yahua contributing over 80% of the region's under construction capacity. This pattern not only improves development efficiency but also enhances supply chain stability. However, the regional power shortage and logistics bottleneck issues are difficult to solve in the short term, which may result in a delay of 3-6 months in the release of production capacity for some projects.

The uncertainty of supply is increasing, and the industrial chain needs to actively respond

From the demand side, the global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase to 1.43 million tons of LCE by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The core driving force for demand growth comes from the stable growth of the new energy vehicle market and the explosive growth of the energy storage market. By 2025, the global installed capacity of lithium battery energy storage will exceed 170GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68%. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is about 560000 tons of LCE, accounting for 39% of the total demand, an increase of 10 percentage points from 2024.  

Based on a comprehensive analysis of both supply and demand, the global lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a critical turning point from "surplus" to "tight balance" in 2026, with a long-term trend of tight supply and demand. The supply-demand gap is expected to reach 190000 tons of LCE by 2026, and the market landscape is officially shifting towards tight balance. After 2027, with the increasing penetration rate of solid-state batteries and further explosive demand for energy storage, the demand growth rate will remain above 30%, while the supply growth rate is limited by project development cycles and resource constraints, only maintaining at 8% -10%. The supply-demand gap will continue to widen, and the gap is expected to reach 1.95 million tons of LCE by 2030.  

Faced with the uncertainty of overseas lithium carbonate supply, industrial chain enterprises need to actively respond from multiple dimensions: first, strengthen upstream resource layout, lock in high-quality resources through overseas investment, long-term agreements, and other means; The second is to accelerate technological innovation, improve resource utilization efficiency and recovery rate; Thirdly, optimize supply chain management, establish diversified supply channels, and reduce supply risks in a single region; The fourth is to strengthen cooperation with governments of resource rich countries, promote the construction of localized processing capacity, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. Keywords: Social Review News

The overall trend of global new energy transformation will not change, and the strategic position of lithium carbonate as a core raw material will continue to enhance. Against the backdrop of increasing supply uncertainty, industry chain enterprises need to respond to challenges with a more open, cooperative, and innovative attitude, and jointly promote the healthy and sustainable development of the global lithium industry chain.Editor/Yang Meiling