Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has attracted over 222.3 billion US dollars in foreign direct investment due to its abundant resource endowment, injecting strong momentum into its economic development. However, as the global energy market adjusts and large-scale projects enter a new cycle, the country's FDI faces structural challenges. The latest data shows that the scale of foreign investment will experience a phase of decline in 2025, but the government has quickly adjusted its strategy and set a new target of attracting $150 billion by 2029, showing signs of recovery in early 2026.

Ebb tide and cyclical adjustment

Statistics show that between 2016 and 2025, the total FDI in Kazakhstan reached 222.37 billion US dollars. But there will be a turning point in 2025, with a decrease in FDI scale throughout the year, mainly due to a significant withdrawal of funds from the mining sector. Data shows that by 2025, mining FDI will decrease by about 6.5 billion US dollars, of which about 6.3 billion US dollars will flow out of funds in the fields of crude oil and natural gas extraction. Analysis indicates that this is mainly related to the completion of future expansion projects in the Tengiz oilfield and the entry of foreign investors into the profit recovery period, resulting in an increase in profit repatriation overseas. In addition, the cooling of the mining industry also affects downstream industries, with a capital outflow of about 300 million US dollars in the construction sector by 2025, demonstrating the fragility of resource dependent economies.

Diversified drive and recovery in 2026

Faced with challenges, Kazakhstan is accelerating economic diversification to hedge risks. The latest data for 2026 brings a positive signal, with FDI increasing by 12% year-on-year in the first quarter, returning to the $18 billion range. The growth momentum is shifting from traditional oil and gas to non resource sectors, and the signing amount of manufacturing and agricultural projects has significantly increased. In addition, with the government optimizing investment policies, the construction industry has achieved an 8% increase in capital inflows in the first five months of 2026, indicating a recovery in infrastructure projects. To support the ambitious goal of $150 billion by 2029, Kazakhstan is focusing on promoting new energy and transportation logistics projects, attempting to build new advantages in global capital competition.

Kazakhstan is at a critical juncture in the transformation of its investment model, from a decade of 200 billion yuan glory to a deep adjustment by 2025. The rebound in data at the beginning of 2026 proves that the country still has strong capital attraction by getting rid of dependence on a single energy sector and improving the business environment. In the coming years, the success in activating the potential of non resource sectors will determine whether they can achieve the billion dollar investment blueprint by 2029 as scheduled.Editor/Cheng Liting