On June 26, 2026, the National Energy Administration released a press conference to clarify the core goal of building a new energy system during the 15th Five Year Plan period. By the end of 2030, the total installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power should reach over 2.8 billion kilowatts, and new energy will officially become the dual main body of power installation and electricity supply. Based on this baseline, the growth potential of the domestic photovoltaic industry in the next five years has become clear.

According to the current pace of progress, by the end of 2025, the cumulative grid connected photovoltaic power in China will be about 1.15 billion kilowatts, wind power will be about 400 million kilowatts, and the total wind and solar power base will be 1.55 billion kilowatts. Based on the total target of 2.8 billion kilowatts, the total increase in wind and solar power during the 15th Five Year Plan period is at least 1.25 billion kilowatts, which is the minimum increase required to complete the plan.

1 billion kilowatts become the mainstream expectation

Referring to the industry trend of the past five years, the scale of photovoltaic new additions accounts for 75% to 80% of the total wind and solar energy increment, and this proportion is still slightly increasing year by year. According to the most conservative 75% proportion calculation, the bottom line scale of newly added photovoltaics in the 15th Five Year Plan is about 930 million kilowatts; According to the mainstream 80% proportion in recent years, the photovoltaic power added corresponding to the total target of 2.8 billion kilowatts is close to 1 billion kilowatts. The installation target of domestic energy planning has always been a bottom line constraint, and the actual implementation almost always exceeds the planned value. The 14th Five Year Plan for photovoltaic installation has greatly exceeded the initial expectations.

The continuous promotion of the Shage Wilderness Base, the continuous expansion of distributed scenarios, and the investment of over 5 trillion yuan in the power grid in the 15th Five Year Plan to overcome consumption bottlenecks are highly likely to exceed the target of 2.8 billion kilowatts of wind and solar power installed capacity, reaching 3 billion kilowatts or even higher. In a neutral scenario, the newly added scale of photovoltaics is about 1 to 1.1 billion kilowatts, and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 1.2 billion kilowatts.

The installation pace will not be evenly distributed

The five-year increase in scale will not be evenly spread over every year. From 2026 to 2027, the photovoltaic industry chain is still clearing production capacity and prices are bottoming out. The transformation of ultra-high voltage transmission channels and distribution networks is also gradually being implemented, and the installed capacity will remain steadily released. Keywords: new energy system, photovoltaic total installed capacity

By 2028 to 2030, the supporting capacity of the power grid will be significantly improved, the supply and demand of the industrial chain will return to balance, large-scale projects will be centralized and connected to the grid, and distributed photovoltaics will further penetrate and penetrate, gradually increasing the growth rate of installed capacity. Overall, the reasonable increase in domestic photovoltaic capacity during the 15th Five Year Plan period is around 1000GW, with an average annual increase of around 200GW, which has become a common consensus in the industry.Editor/Cheng Liting