On July 16th in Shanghai, President Tokayev signed an agreement at a meeting with the Chinese business community. The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan, the government of Mangystau Oblast, and China Guoyou Materials Industry Group have confirmed that China will invest 1 billion US dollars to build the first phase of the Kurek Port multifunctional terminal. More than 70 commercial agreements were signed on site during the same period, with a total amount exceeding 15 billion US dollars, covering artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, transportation, finance, agriculture, and vehicle manufacturing. This terminal investment is the largest single terminal investment received by the east coast of the Caspian Sea in recent years.

Xingang Luozi Kulyk

Kazakhstan has more than one seaport on the east coast of the Caspian Sea. The old port of Aktao is adjacent to the urban area and is used for bulk cargo and oil all year round. The storage yard and railway marshalling space are already tight. Kulyk is located south of Aktau and was later planned as a separate new port area. Its original design intention was for railway ferries and roll on/roll off services, with berths directly connected to railway lines, and cargo can be grouped upon arrival without the need for short urban areas. The fact that 1 billion US dollars fell here instead of Aktau indicates that the funds are targeting transit goods rather than local bulk commodities. The term 'Phase One' is also worth noting, usually referring to the foundation of berths, yards, and railway connections. The overall goal is 15 million tons, not the number that will be achieved immediately after the opening of Phase One. For those traveling across the Caspian Sea, there will be two loading points on the east coast in the future, no longer relying solely on Aktau's single leg support.

The bottleneck is not on the east coast

Cabinets enter the country from Alataw Pass or Khorgos, and the railway to the east bank of the Caspian Sea is the most stable link in the whole section. Dispatching in Kazakhstan is still able to cope with the current transit volume. Time is truly consumed in the last two periods. One is waiting for ships. The Caspian Sea is a non oceanic route with limited capacity and sparse schedules. Arranging ship positions at the port is the most volatile link, and suspending operations during the winter wind and wave season is an annual routine. The second is to unload the goods on the opposite bank, transfer them to Aliyat Port in Azerbaijan for loading and then onto the railway. The yard and loading and unloading pace on the other side cannot keep up, and even if the east bank is fast, it will only cause backlog on the other side. In the same week, Aliyev revealed on the Shusha Media Forum that the cargo volume in the China Arab Middle Corridor was increasing, and Afghanistan was expanding its port capacity by nearly double. Adding a dock on the east bank and loading and unloading on the west bank requires simultaneous movement of both ends to enhance the overall capacity of the line. Moving only one end is simply shifting the bottleneck.

A billion is just the bottom plate

The total amount of the same batch agreement is 15 billion US dollars, with the 1 billion US dollar terminal accounting for about one fifteenth. Placed at the intersection, it is the most practical - with specific projects, locations, production capacity targets, and 800 direct positions, rather than a framework text. Comparing with another piece of data, we can better understand the current situation of the corridor: from January to May this year, the trade volume between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan just exceeded 150 million US dollars, with exports of 127.7 million and imports of 22.5 million. Azerbaijan only accounts for 0.3% of Kazakhstan's total foreign trade. The bilateral trade along the Caspian Sea route itself is extremely small, and almost all of its value lies in transit - goods from China to Europe pass through from here. Ports invest in transit traffic expectations rather than local markets, and success or failure depends on whether other people's goods come, rather than how much they digest locally.

On the day of signing the contract, there was no change in the cabin space. From the agreement to the commissioning of the first phase of the project, any step of the design, construction, equipment and trial operation may be delayed. Those who plan the route should not include it in this year's or even next year's transportation capacity.

It is worth paying attention to three key points: the Ministry of Transport or Mangystau Oblast will post the bidding and construction schedule to prove that the money and land are in place; Aliyat capacity expansion progress; Whether the Caspian Sea fleet will increase capacity or work overtime simultaneously - the first two are onshore, and the third one will determine the timing. At present, those who engage in transshipment and freight forwarding can only separate the containers that are currently crossing the Caspian Sea from the domestic railway time and the waiting time for the ship to cross the sea and change the loading time, and keep a baseline. Only when Kurek is truly put into operation can we compare and know where the province is worth changing the route.

The easiest pitfall in this corridor is to treat the contracted scale as the actual transportation capacity. The port is a matter of ten years, and the shipping schedule is tomorrow's matter, two different things.Editor/Yang Meiling