At the foot of the Tianshan Mountains, a China Europe freight train loaded with photovoltaic modules and construction machinery honked its horn and set off, crossing the Gobi Desert and heading towards the hinterland of Central Asia; At the same time, high-quality wheat and copper concentrate from Kazakhstan are rapidly clearing customs through smart ports and heading to factories in China. A new economic and trade artery spanning Asia and Europe is quietly reshaping the economic map of this ancient continent.

Economic and trade breakthrough against the trend

By 2025, the trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries will reach 106.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12%, surpassing 100 billion US dollars for the first time, and doubling the scale in four years. Faced with the sluggish global trade and the impact of geopolitical conflicts, relying on five conditions of industrial complementarity, industrialization, investment linkage, multilateral mechanisms, and interconnectivity, a new regional economic pattern has been formed. Billion dollar trade reshapes the opening up of the western region, Central Asian industries, and the supply chain of industries in central Asia and Europe, providing growth samples for global trade. Central Asia has formed a four-dimensional model of trade+investment+digital ecology+global supply chain, clarifying the opportunity path for domestic enterprises to go global.

Global trade growth is sluggish, traditional foreign trade markets are under pressure, and the manufacturing industry urgently needs low-risk emerging markets. The Central Asian land route has become an important choice to diversify foreign trade risks. The economic growth rates of the five Central Asian countries are impressive, but their industrial foundation is weak and there is a large infrastructure gap. They rely heavily on imported equipment and consumer goods, and digital transformation brings new opportunities for cooperation. In 2021, bilateral trade was only 49.56 billion US dollars. Driven by the China Central Asia Summit, China Europe freight trains, and the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan railway, exports will reach 71.2 billion US dollars and imports will reach 35.1 billion US dollars in 2025, with faster import growth and optimized trade structure. Cooperation will shift from commodity trade to industrial co construction.

Core logic of growth

Complementary industrial resources are the underlying driving force. China's complete manufacturing industry matches the demand for industrialization in Central Asia, with strong exports of electromechanical and new energy; Central Asian energy and mineral resources ensure China's resource security, while non resource trade such as fruits, vegetables, and processed products expands, forming a two-way supply and demand loop.

The industrialization of Central Asia has generated a large demand for imports, coupled with industrial construction and consumption upgrading, continuously driving the export of Chinese products. China's cumulative direct investment in Central Asia has exceeded 30 billion US dollars, directed towards new energy, automobiles, and the digital economy. Localized factory construction has driven supporting exports and released investment multiplier effects. 14 ministerial level cooperation platforms, the China Central Asia Summit unleashes institutional dividends, trade facilitation platforms are implemented, and customs clearance is simplified and access is relaxed. The China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway, China Europe freight trains, the Trans Caspian Sea Corridor, and smart ports continue to be improved, compressing logistics efficiency and costs, and facilitating two-way trade.

Multidimensional development value

Billions of yuan in economic and trade assistance to digest domestic manufacturing capacity and hedge against the decline in external demand; Promote the western region to become an open hub and facilitate regional coordination; Land imports strengthen the security of resource supply chains, forcing industries to upgrade towards high-end green, and driving the development of logistics, finance, and consulting services. For Central Asia, cooperate to fill the gaps in industry, improve transportation and energy infrastructure, create employment, and increase residents' income; Diversify export structure, mitigate commodity price risks, and introduce technological standards to solidify the foundation of industrialization. Keywords: connectivity, Central Asia, the Belt and Road

Building a growth pole in the Asia Europe hinterland with billions of dollars in trade, providing a multilateral model for resisting trade protectionism; Land logistics reduces dependence on sea transportation, and green cooperation promotes regional low-carbon transformation. Standing at a new starting point of billions, both sides focus on new energy, high-end equipment, digital economy, green minerals, and agricultural product processing, creating cross-border industrial clusters, and continuously lowering the threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises to go global. Deeply integrate into the joint construction of the the Belt and Road, promote the connectivity of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway and other railways, deepen industrial, green and digital cooperation, promote the economic integration of Asia and Europe, and inject impetus into the global recovery.Editor/Gong Ziwei