Guinea's iron ore export data for the second quarter of 2026 has been released, with a scale of 6.04 million tons directly breaking the historical record of this West African country, reaching more than 35 times that of the same period last year. Behind this number is the new cycle of continuous and stable operation of the Simandou iron ore mine, which will officially enter from the first ship shipping stage after being put into operation at the end of 2025. A new round of variables in the global iron ore trade pattern is rapidly taking shape.

Dual subject support leads to a significant increase in export volume

In the second quarter, the total export volume of ferrous ore reached 6040481 tons, and from April to June, all exports remained stable at the million ton mark. Among them, BWCS and SimFer, the two major operating entities of Simandou, contributed a total of 87.1% of the export share. This scale is not only 35.1 times that of the same period last year, but also 5.71 times the annual export volume in 2025. In addition to the low base effect, it directly confirms that the first ship of the first mine in Simandou has been fully transformed into a continuous quarterly shipping capacity.

The railway spanning over 600 kilometers across Guinea will complete comprehensive debugging in the first quarter of 2026, opening up the core main channel for increased shipping volume in the second quarter. The current mines, railways, and ports have been verified to be able to stably organize monthly shipments of millions of tons. The annual design capacity of 120 million tons for the entire project is still in the climbing and debugging stage. The construction progress of SimFer mine has reached 77%, and the progress of the dedicated port has reached 85%. Some shipments are still completed relying on the WCS port system, and the entire logistics chain is in a state of operation and improvement.

The operational details determine the subsequent climbing pace

The month on month decline in exports from May to June was entirely driven by the decrease in BWCS shipments, while SimFer shipments continued to show an upward trend. The fluctuation in monthly total volume did not form a trend reversal. Previously, the BWCS mining area temporarily suspended mining operations due to short-term labor disputes. Inventory, train scheduling, and shipping arrangements can buffer mining operation disturbances in the short term, and monthly data fluctuations do not represent overall capacity contraction.

There is a delay of 2 to 3 months in the production, departure, and sales confirmation of Simandou. Mine production, port departure, and enterprise sales belong to three different statistical calibers. Directly equating export volume with enterprise income will amplify the reference value of monthly data. In the next 3 to 6 months, the stability of BWCS shipments and the sustainability of SimFer growth will be the core observation indicators. After the completion of SimFer dedicated port commissioning in the first quarter of 2027, the southern mining area will no longer rely on shared ports and officially ramp up to an annual production capacity of 60 million tons. Keywords: Simandou iron ore, iron ore export

From the first ship off the assembly line to stable monthly shipments, the development stage of Simandou has completed a critical transition. This globally anticipated mega iron ore project, with every operational detail going forward, will profoundly affect the global supply pattern of high-grade iron ore and inject new stabilizing forces into the resource security system of China's steel industry.Editor/Cheng Liting