In the first half of 2026, China's lithium hydroxide trade data marked a highly iconic curve, with a cumulative import of 31700 tons and export of 22700 tons, officially ending the long-standing net export pattern. As a major producer of lithium hydroxide with a global share of over 70%, the reversal of trade flow is reflecting the deep restructuring of the global lithium battery and lithium salt industry chain.

The trade pattern has completed a historic transition

Previously, China was the world's leading net exporter of lithium hydroxide for a long time, with over 95% of its export sources flowing to the Japanese and Korean markets. In 2024, South Korea's dependence on lithium hydroxide from China reached 82.3%, and until 2025, China will maintain a net export status with an annual export of 53900 tons and an import of 18400 tons. Starting from the second half of 2025, the industry trend will begin to shift, with exports continuing to decline and imports significantly increasing. Monthly data will switch between net exports and net imports multiple times, until the net import pattern is officially established in the first half of this year.

In June, the monthly export volume increased and returned to net exports, but the short-term fluctuations were caused by concentrated shipments at the end of the quarter and a slight rebound in overseas demand. The core reason for the decline in exports is that on the one hand, some overseas ternary enterprises have converted orders to domestic processing and delivery, and on the other hand, overseas local production lines have directly replaced some import demand with a large volume. The increase in imports is due to the price difference between domestic and foreign markets caused by high overseas inventory and weak demand, leading to a large influx of goods into the domestic market.

Tight balance cycle and synchronized opening of new track

At present, the top five enterprises in China's lithium hydroxide industry account for 72% of the production, and the industry concentration is at a high level. The total production in the first half of the year was 172000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21%. However, the overall operating rate of the industry remains below 50%, and the inventory days are about one month. The price trend shows a characteristic of fluctuating and falling, with an average price of 174000 yuan per ton in May and a month on month decline of 11.52% in June. Currently, it is fluctuating in the range of over 150000 yuan per ton, and its linkage with lithium carbonate futures has significantly strengthened.

The demand side support remains stable, and the demand for ternary power is expected to increase by about 36% month on month in the second half of the year. The high nickel ternary route still has no alternative in the field of long-range high-end new energy vehicles. From 2026 to 2027, the supply and demand of the industry will continue to be tightly balanced, coupled with the acceleration of the listing process of lithium hydroxide futures. Top enterprises have already laid out delivery factory and warehouse qualifications in advance, and trade competition will shift from simple price arbitrage to a comprehensive competition of channels, quality, and risk management. Keywords: lithium hydroxide, trade competition

The shift from net exports to net imports does not mean a decline in the global competitiveness of China's lithium hydroxide industry. The change in this round of trade flow is essentially the result of the combined effect of global lithium salt supply and demand mismatch and price cycle. The new global lithium salt trade balance pattern is still gradually taking shape.Editor/Cheng Liting