The analyst's question has shifted from iPhone shipments to cloud vendors' capital expenditures, and Chinese semiconductors are undergoing a profound anchor shift. Consumer electronics are declining, AI computing power is taking the stage - companies betting on the right direction are doubling their valuations, and players sticking to the old path are paying the price.

Consumer electronics decline, AI becomes new anchor point

According to IDC data, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.26 billion units and PC shipments will be approximately 284.7 million units by 2025. These two indicators have maintained narrow fluctuations for five years, with the average replacement cycle for smartphones extending to 40 to 47 months. In sharp contrast, the demand for AI servers from cloud service providers continues to surge. Industrial Fulian's performance forecast for the first half of 2026 shows that the revenue of AI servers for cloud service providers has increased by over 230% year-on-year, and the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 23.4-24.4 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year.

When analysts stopped asking about iPhone shipping guidelines and instead focused on the capital expenditure plans of Microsoft, Amazon and ByteDance, the anchor of the semiconductor cycle has completed switching. The isolated verbal battle between Apple and Micron is only superficial - Cook complained about the increase in storage prices, while Micron ridiculed Apple's decade long price suppression, but behind it is actually the comprehensive occupation of consumer electronics production capacity by AI.

The dividend of sprinters

The company that first observed the change in water temperature has already had its first taste of soup. Luxshare Precision will establish direct cooperation with Nvidia in 2024 and deeply participate in the joint research of Blackwell platform architecture. Nowadays, all of its high-speed copper cables, liquid cooled connectors and other products have entered the Nvidia supplier list, and a complete cabinet solution based on the Vera Rubin architecture has been exhibited at Computex 2026. Industrial Fulian has gone from being an Apple contract manufacturer with a valuation hovering around 10 times to becoming a core target of AI computing power - in the first quarter of 2026, cloud computing revenue accounted for over 60%, and 800G switch shipments increased by 1.6 times year-on-year.

The most dramatic reversal comes from BOE. This display panel giant, which was once trapped in screen cycles and had a long period of low valuation, doubled its stock price within a month after signing a memorandum of cooperation with Corning for glass based packaging boards in May. Even its repurchase plan was suspended due to the rapid growth rate. The glass based sealed loading board directly refers to the carrier board replacement of TGV technology in AI servers and HBM stacks, and Nvidia has announced a total investment cap of $3.2 billion for Corning, thus closing the industrial chain logic of BOE. Lansi Technology and Leading Intelligence Manufacturing are taking the acquisition route, directly entering the field of computing power cabinet liquid cooling by obtaining Nvidia RVL supplier certification. These cases demonstrate that the pricing logic of the capital market for semiconductor companies has completely shifted: the AI narrative is much more important than the stability of the original main business.

The one with precise positioning wins

The field of end side SoC presents a dual sky pattern of ice and fire. Ruixin Microelectronics achieved a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 57% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026, thanks to its AIoT solution. Its single quarter profit reached a historic high. However, Zhongke Lanxun, which focuses on TWS Bluetooth audio, saw a sharp decline in net profit of 113%, while Hengxuan Technology's revenue and net profit decreased by 33% and 53% respectively. The proportion of AI computing power related revenue of Xinyuan Shares has risen to 64.43%. NPU IP shipped nearly 200 million units last year and was integrated into over 140 AI chips by 91 customers. The same industry trend, different card positions, can lead to vastly different outcomes.

When AI computing power becomes the only main channel in the semiconductor industry, the tide of consumer electronics is receding. Companies that bet on the right direction for valuation restructuring, while players who stick to the old path are quickly abandoned by the market. This anchor point transfer is far from over, and for those companies still watching, time is running out.Editor/Cheng Liting